By: Darren W. King | Wealth Management

Source: Bloomberg, Inc.

Key Takeaways:

• 2024 Fed GDP estimates move higher, up to 2.1% growth in 2024, well above late 2023 estimates at 1.4%
• Fed now indicates one rate cut in 2024, down from 3 earlier in the year
• S&P 500 up 4.2% and NASDAQ up 8.5 % in 2nd quarter. Global and small capitalization markets stall with mega cap technology and AI themes driving market returns
• The Core Consumer Price Index ends 2Q2024 at 3.4%, down from 3.8% in the 1Q2024
• Unemployment finishes June at 4.1%, highest reading since November 2021
• Private sector job growth stalls, still, wage growth finishes the 2^nd quarter at 5.1%

Equity Strategy

We are expecting a more normalized return environment for equities for the remainder of 2024 with valuations needing to also normalize after the strong rally over the past nine months. However, we do see a continued broadening of equity returns out of technology and AI themes and into other areas of the market that have not participated. We see the first Fed rate cut as the catalyst. We do not see a Democrat or Republican win in the presidential election changing fiscal policy. Whether looser regulation, tariffs, ending green energy initiatives, continued direct entitlement spending, or continued infrastructure spending; we see a higher level of inflation and a free spending economy over the longer term. Equity markets believe economic growth is strong enough and inflation is falling fast enough for the Fed to rescue lofty equity valuations. An orderly return to a more normalized rate environment could prove to be a powerful catalyst for equities to avoid any major market correction in the near term.

Fixed Income Strategy

Within the fixed income markets; interest rate, fed policy, and market traders are somewhere between one and two interest rate cuts this year, following weaker economic data over the past two months. Ten-year treasury rates are currently at 4.28%, up 10 basis points from the end of the first quarter, but down substantially from earlier this summer before softer data influenced markets. The corporate bond market is still offering yields north of 5%. We see rates moving lower over the intermediate term, and we see current interest rate levels as an opportune period to extend portfolio duration, invest excess cash in fixed income markets, or take some profits from equity portfolios to add to fixed income exposure.

Click here to read the entire Q2 2024 Market Review.

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